JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- After setting statewide average corn yield records in back-to-back seasons, Missouri farmers are likely to harvest a below-average corn crop this year, according to 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour estimates based on models as of Aug. 1. Those models also estimate that the Show-Me State's soybean crop is likely to trend below average.
In 2024, Missouri's corn growers set a record statewide average yield of 183.0 bushels per acre (bpa) -- only to best it last year with a crop that yielded 185.0 bpa, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production 2025 Summary Report. That record is likely to stand as July weather trimmed top-end yield potential.
CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:
-- DTN 2026: 167.5 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- DTN 2025: 187.7 bpa
-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 170.3 bpa
SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:
-- DTN 2026: 49.4 bushels per acre (bpa)
-- DTN 2025: 50.4 bpa
-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 51.6 bpa
While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.
For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Updated yield model results will be shared in early September on DTN's online products. You can view a Reporter's Notebook that previewed the Digital Yield Tour at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. On Aug. 14, you can find the post-tour Reporter's Notebook video at https://www.dtnpf.com/…. Also, later in August you can hear a Field Posts Podcast about the tour results at https://www.dtnpf.com/….
WEATHER COMMENTARY
Given an intensely busy weather pattern in the spring and early summer, Missouri looked like it would be the drowned-out spot in the Corn Belt this year, said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. Many areas saw above-normal rainfall from March through June, with some areas receiving near a foot of rain in May and June.
"The Bootheel was an area where precipitation was a little harder to come by, but drought was reduced or eliminated there through the summer with a couple of heavier rainfall events," he said. "Areas north of the Missouri River did get a little drier in July, but all things considered, rainfall has not been an issue in the state."
Heat, however, has been an issue at times. The state endured an early July heatwave and another again during late July.
"This heat may show some impacts in our yield data if it came at a time when either corn or soybeans were hitting critical stages," Baranick said. "But as long as waterlogging wasn't a huge deal early in the season, this may be the state that has seen the best weather conditions overall this season so far."
MARKET COMMENTARY
According to DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery, Missouri's growing season has featured above-average temperatures and slightly below-average precipitation through July. However, the most recent USDA Crop Progress Report rated that state's corn crop at 67% good to excellent, which is still ahead of Missouri's five-year average for early to mid-August.
"Yet, the DTN Digital Yield Tour model's initial forecast is sharply lower than the initial run from 2025, though moderately lower than the previous five-year average," he said. "For comparison, NASS this week forecasted a 180 bpa yield for Missouri, down only 5 bpa from 2025, suggesting there is a high degree of disagreement among models on Missouri's yield potential in 2026.
"Considering that before the jump in Missouri corn productivity in 2024 and 2025 the average from 2019 to 2023 was 160 bpa in NASS terms, I certainly don't see the DTN model's forecast as unrealistic," Montgomery continued, "but it's one to keep an eye on through the final stages of the growing season."
For Missouri soybeans, the 2026 Digital Yield Tour initial forecast is 1 bpa lower than the initial run in 2025 and 2.25 bpa lower than the previous five-year average, Montgomery said. Good-to-excellent ratings as of early August are 13 points lower in Missouri compared to early 2025.
"NASS forecasted this week that Missouri soybean yields would be steady with 2025 averages," he added. "While this is likely still achievable depending on late-season rainfall, I prefer DTN's outlook which errs to the lower side while still expecting a decent yield overall."
OBSERVATIONS
-- Zach Grossman, Carroll and Livingston counties, Missouri:
On his northwest Missouri farm that includes acreage in both Carroll and Livingston counties, Zach Grossman described his 2026 growing season as being like stop-and-go traffic -- going from a dead stop to full bore and then back to a dead stop because of wet conditions.
For the second season, Grossman was able to begin planting soybeans during the last week of March.
"We got about half our bean acres planted successfully. Then, just as the calendar turned to April 1 and we prepared to switch to corn planting, it turned off wet for three weeks," he said. "Things dried up about the last week of April, and we were able to jump in and get all the corn in that first week of May. We immediately switched back to soybeans and finished planting most of those by the middle of the month."
Rains stayed pretty persistent all through the spring and into June. Grossman said his corn tasseled and pollinated well, going into the first week of July, but then Mother Nature turned off the tap.
"The rain basically shut off on us for a critical three- to four-week period when grain fill was occurring on the corn," he said. "Depending on soil types and hybrids, we are finding tip back to varying degrees in most every field."
Rain returned the first week of August, and Grossman said a 2- to 3-inch soaker came at the perfect time for his soybeans.
"That rain replenished some subsoil moisture that should carry those beans well through the month," he said. "However, with the persistent heat we're experiencing currently, another rain during the last half of the month would be welcome in order to achieve complete top-end yield on the soybeans."
Generally speaking, Grossman said he anticipates an "average but not great" corn crop in the 175-180 bpa range. He's more optimistic on soybeans, with farmwide yield topping 60 bpa if the crop can get one more decent rain.
"When I think about how this year is playing out compared to prior years for us in my area, 2023 comes to mind," he said. "Disease pressure was very limited to none this year. We did fungicide most of our corn and bean acres, but we stuck to cheaper, generic, single-mode action products. We added back in some foliar products, instead, for stress mitigation -- just trying to do something but yet save half the cost versus high-dollar, triple-mode products."
For Carroll County, the DTN model predicts yield estimates of 162.3 bpa for corn and 51.8 bpa for soybeans. The county's five-year yield averages are 176.2 bpa and 53.8 bpa for corn and soybeans, respectively.
In Livingston County, DTN estimates a corn yield of 153.3 bpa and a soybean yield of 46.6 bpa. The county's five-year yield averages are 179.2 bpa and 51.2 bpa for corn and soybeans, respectively.
-- Crop-Trak Scouting, MFA Incorporated:
Throughout the season, MFA's Crop-Trak scouting program provides weekly updates from the cooperative's agronomists and crop consultants.
In Missouri's Bootheel region, comprised of Pemiscot, Dunklin and New Madrid counties, conditions were extremely dry when planting began this spring. Instead of contending with cool soils and excess moisture, growers took advantage of the extended stretches of warm weather. Corn and soybeans planted in the last week of March had emerged by the first week of April. Moisture for the young crop did become a concern, however, as did persistent wind that accompanied the warm weather, making herbicide application more challenging.
By the third week of April, the MFA team estimated that 85% to 90% of the region's corn and soybean acres had been planted, with 70% of the crop already emerged. April provided some relief to the dry conditions. Wireworm activity was noted, but those who applied in-furrow insecticide avoided stand loss.
Rains continued into May and were accompanied by lower temperatures. Crop-Trak consultants noted that some storms were accompanied by hail that caused enough damage to some fields to require replanting. Scouting also uncovered some cutworm feeding in soybeans and stink bugs in corn, though not at economic thresholds to justify standalone treatment.
Early June rain helped incorporate top-dressed fertilizer and activate residual herbicides. Some of the earliest corn had reached tasseling, while early soybeans were approaching the R3 growth stage. By the middle of the month, gray leaf spot was the primary disease scouts encountered in the field. Some concerns over rapid growth syndrome also emerged, as some fields exhibited tightly wrapped tassels, potentially causing pollination issues.
After a few weeks of dry weather, some much-needed moisture came toward mid-July during a critical grain fill period for corn. MFA's consultants found that gray leaf spot was the driver of disease pressure early in the month, but southern rust arrived on the scene during the third week of July. In soybeans, frogeye leaf spot lingered.
By the second week of August, some Bootheel corn had already reached black layer. Some timely rainfall was expected to help finish a majority of dryland corn and even allow some growers to terminate irrigation. Southern rust had become more prevalent in corn; while in soybeans, scouts were seeing sudden death syndrome show up in earlier-planted fields. Soybean podworm populations were increasing and had reached economic threshold in some fields.
The DTN model predicts corn yield estimates of 183.1 bpa, 161.9 bpa and 197.6 bpa in Pemiscot, Dunklin and New Madrid counties, respectively. In soybeans, the DTN models estimate yields of 53.2 bpa, 43.2 bpa and 51.9 bpa, respectively.
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